SMM reported on June 27 that SS futures showed a fluctuating trend, with overall prices remaining above 12,600 yuan/mt. In the spot market, stainless steel spot prices experienced a decline followed by a rebound this week. At the beginning of the week, influenced by low-priced transactions of high-grade NPI and reduced pricing by stainless steel mills, stainless steel prices fell to their lowest point in nearly five years, with the base price of some low-priced 304 cold-rolled mill-edge coils dropping to 12,100 yuan/mt. Although market sentiment remained relatively pessimistic, the low prices stimulated some traders' buying-the-dip demand. Subsequently, news emerged of production cuts at a major stainless steel mill, ending the two-month continuous decline in stainless steel spot prices and achieving a bottom-out rebound. The market inquiry atmosphere warmed up accordingly, transaction conditions slightly improved, and social inventory declined during the week, falling below 1 million mt. Additionally, at the beginning of the week, when mill prices were at low levels, traders showed active purchasing interest in forward contracts, which alleviated the shipment pressure on mills to some extent.
In the futures market, the most-traded 2508 contract strengthened and rose. At 10:30 a.m., SS2508 was quoted at 12,620 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In the Wuxi region, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 200-400 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan were both quoted at 7,625 yuan/mt; cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coils averaged 12,750 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 12,750 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils were quoted at 23,800 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted at 23,100 yuan/mt in both regions; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils were quoted at 7,350 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan
. Currently, the stainless steel market remains in the traditional off-season, with downstream demand failing to match the current supply levels. Moreover, uncertainties such as US tariffs remain significant, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream players. Although stainless steel mills are generally facing losses and production cuts have been reported, the large production base in earlier periods has resulted in current supply remaining at historically high levels for the same period, indicating that the repair of the supply-demand relationship will take time. Both mill inventory and social inventory are at relatively high levels, and under the backdrop of the off-season, the destocking pace has significantly slowed, causing stainless steel mills, agents, and traders to face considerable shipment pressure, thereby limiting the rebound in stainless steel prices. The raw material sector is also under tremendous pressure. Affected by expectations for production cuts at steel mills, only the steel bidding price of high-carbon ferrochrome can remain stable amid production cuts by overseas ferrochrome producers, while the market retail price has already fallen below the steel bidding price. The prices of other raw materials, such as high-grade NPI and stainless steel scrap, have also weakened significantly, further eroding the cost support for stainless steel. The market is now waiting to see how the supply-demand relationship will improve after stainless steel mills cut production.
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